Good Sunday morning to everyone. It’s a very mild start to the day as deep southwest flow and moisture flows into the Carolinas. The footprint of El Nino continues.
A look at the water vapor loop easily shows the moisture link and a stout upper trough in the Four Corners Region and moving into the Southern Plains later today.
Forecast Timeline: Sunday
Rain showers early today will begin to move out by early afternoon leaving conditions mostly cloudy across the region.
Sunday Night
As we get into the night time hours of Sunday a warm front will advance north allowing a focus of precipitation across the Western Carolinas and back into Georgia. The air should remain stable enough to limit thunderstorms here in North Carolina but some thunder is definitely possible in North Georgia. Those driving home from SuperBowl parties, be aware!
Monday Morning
The upper level dynamics with this storm will be moving across Arkansas by this point. A pre-front surge of moisture is moving across the Southeast US and that could be accompanied by some locally heavy rain and thunder.
Monday Afternoon/Evening
The main cold front will move in by late afternoon and out of the region by the evening. A convective element of precipitation is quite possible along the front.
As you can see, temperatures will be surging on Monday close to the 60-degree mark across western North Carolina and low 60’s from the NC-SC line and south.
Short range guidance is picking up on some low amounts of surface CAPE (thunderstorm fuel) for the later afternoon hours around the time of arrival of the front. The moisture, fuel and warmth all suggests storms are probable Monday late afternoon.
Flood Risk?
With the long duration of moisture and convective elements involved some local rainfall amount in some rises of small streams especially near the Blue Ridge. However, any places that might get thunder on multiple occasions are in play as well.
What follows?
After the front passes Monday night things will calm down for a few days as temperatures remain at or just above average. There are no signs of a big cooldown coming up and there is no hint of winter weather the next seven days. Time is ticking on the winter of 2023-24.