Nor’easter to impact the Carolinas and East Coast with rain and wind (12/16 morning update)

Good Saturday morning to everyone,

We continue to monitor what looks to be a major weather event running up the east coast over the next 48-72 hours. As of early Saturday morning the main players are clearly in view. First we have a developing area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico moving to the east-northeast along the sub-tropical jet.

Over the Southern Plains is an upper low that is helping fuel the surface low development and then over the Central Plains is another shortwave that is diving southeast. All three of these features are expected to phase over the Southeast US by late Sunday bringing one of the strongest nor’easters of recent memory.

There are still a few subtle differences along the computer model guidance this close to the event. Some of it has to do with exactly how quick each upper level feature phases with the surface low. The general idea is for the Gulf low to develop quickly and move northeast toward the Florida Big Bend Region by Saturday night and along the Southeast coast through Sunday while intensify to around 980-985 mb of pressure.

The one difference lies in the short range data that phases everything a big earlier than the global models. The NAM/HRRR for example pulls the surface low straight north into Central North Carolina. That would result in bigger impacts while the GFS and Euro keep it along the coastline and pulling into Eastern North Carolina due to a later phase.

Regardless of either scenario, a rainy, windy and cold Sunday will occur across the Foothills and Western Piedmont.

A strong southeast fetch of winds off the Atlantic will increase clouds throughout the day on Saturday and by late Saturday night, rain showers will start to move and by the time you wake up on Sunday, widespread will cover the region.

Rainfall amounts are expected to be in the 1-3 inch rain with lower amounts along the Blue Ridge as compared to piedmont areas of Lincoln, Cleveland and parts of Catawba County. That is all under the assumption of a coastal low track. Rainfall amounts could easily change if we get see something closer to the short range data.

The other impact from this storm will be the increasing winds as the storm intensifies on Sunday. Wind gusts as the low approaches will increase from the southeast on Sunday reaching 30-40 mph at times in Piedmont Sunday afternoon.

Then a secondary peak of winds will begin late Sunday night and go into Monday as the storm passes, we get a good rise in air pressure and much colder air begins to move in from the northwest. The mountains may actually get the worst wind on the back side as gusts could reach 50 mph. Areas like Lake Lure, Saluda, Little Switzerland and Jonas Ridge could be vulnerable to this.

Finally, as everything phases and the cold air rushes in, we may see a little northwest flow snow shower activity in the mountains as some Lake-entrained moisture from Lake Michigan could follow the trough into the Southern Appalachian Region.

This kind of weather setup can be problematic to those who deal with bone and joint pain, migraines, etc…the pressure changes are going to be steep for this part of the country. Also, localized power outages are quite possible with the combination of wind and wet soil from the rain. Be mindful of that especially later Sunday and into Monday.