Tricky Weather Forecast Over The Weekend; Severe Weather and More Mountain Snow Possible

A cold night is expected tonight as high pressure builds, causing radiational cooling. Temperatures will likely reach the low to mid-20s in most areas, except for areas along the South Carolina border, which may remain in the upper 20s.

Tomorrow morning will be cold, but the weather will be mostly sunny, with temperatures rising to the mid-50s. On Friday, temperatures will bounce back to around 60°; on Saturday, afternoon highs will reach mid-60s. This warm weather will be due to an intense Pacific jet stream digging across the country’s middle part, leading to warm southerly flow across the southeast US.

Expect clouds to increase on Saturday afternoon as that amplified weather system approaches the area. We are forecasting that rain will hold off until after sunset on Saturday night, but there is a chance of thunderstorms on Sunday as warm and moist air remains in place. Some of the rain will be very heavy at times. Additionally, severe weather may occur on Sunday afternoon due to favorable wind shear and a sneaky potential for a triple-point low-pressure system to add some instability. The best instability right now appears to remain along the South Carolina border, but this could change depending on the development and track of that triple-point low-pressure system.

Anomalous moisture combined with the deep southwesterly flow will promote training linear segments that could quickly drop a few inches of rain. Storm total rainfall is expected to be 2-4″ across the western foothills and mountains, with generally 1-2″ elsewhere across the southern and eastern foothills. One fly in the ointment remains with regards to the precipitation totals though. Gulf coast thunderstorm activity may rob some of the moisture from being transported into the Carolina’s. We will see.

Sunday night, cold air may catch up to the back edge of the precipitation shield across the mountains during the late afternoon to early evening hours, resulting in a changeover to snow followed by a brief period of northwest flow snow showers. Another minor accumulation event looks possible.

As the front pulls away Sunday night, the lower elevations will dry out, and a return to seasonable temperatures looks likely early next week. Still no signs of winter weather in the next 7 days outside of the mountains. The pattern becomes much more favorable mid December though so winter weather lovers, stay tuned.

(Above) Sunday’s Weather System across the eastern US.