Good morning to everyone across the foothills. It is a chilly morning out there with patchy frost. Breezy conditions across the higher elevations have kept a big frost from developing.
Under clear skies and bright sunshine, temps will warm briefly into the 50’s. As we move into the evening, another reinforcing cold front is expected to cross our area, bringing a brief increase in moisture tonight and early tomorrow over the mountains. This will only permit some light rain or snow across the mountains, as we expect no impacts across the foothills. However, dry high pressure will then allow temperatures to warm up through late in the week before active weather returns for the weekend as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
Today, it will be mainly quiet across the region under the influence of weak high pressure. That high-pressure ridge will break down readily through the day as the next cold front drops down into the Ohio Valley. Our area will see plenty of sun today, but temperatures will be much closer to normal thanks to the approaching system.
A disturbance will drive a cold front east across the foothills this evening. Temperatures at the surface shouldn’t be too different from what we are seeing currently but aloft, the temperatures will be much colder. Behind the front, moisture will be pushed up the west side of the mountains by a strengthening Northwest flow that will force the development of precip beginning in the middle part of the evening and spreading east across most of the mountains into tonight. By tonight, snow levels should drop to 3000 ft or so. The moisture layer is expected to move up into the snow growth zone on the west side of the mountains after about 11 pm. This deeper moisture is predicted to persist until around daybreak on Wednesday. Based on this, there will likely be good snow production at high elevations of the mountains. Across the foothills, expect it to be breezy and dry. Temperatures should fall back into the mid 30’s tonight across most foothill locations, with windy conditions aiding insulation.
Expect quiet weather conditions in the Carolinas between systems in the short term. However, some snow showers in the northwest flow may continue throughout Wednesday. It is unlikely that anything more than the occasional flurry will continue past the afternoon hours. Wednesday will be chilly, with temperatures not expected to rise out of the 40’s. Wednesday will be a breezy day, too, with Northwest winds making it feel colder.
The winds are expected to decrease significantly Wednesday night and Thursday as a surface high moves into the area. Radiational cooling will allow the temperature to drop to the 20s by Thursday Morning. Southwest winds will develop through the day Thursday and with that, low temps will be warmer Thursday Night, into Friday Morning.
This weekends weather maker remains unclear. A strong cold front will cross the Great Plains late in the week and reach the Southeast by Saturday night or Sunday. It does appear that some instability will be present Sunday and for that, we have added the risk of thunderstorms to Sunday’s Forecast. However, we remain uncertain about the exact track of the dynamic energy. A change in track a few hunderd miles either way will greatly change the forecast. In summary, there is a possibility of thunderstorms Sunday and a few could be severe. We are all still working on the complete details. Regardless, Saturday Evening and Sunday could be rather windy and wet across the area.
As the system moves on, brace yourself for a significant drop in temperatures. However, if you’re hoping for snow, you might be disappointed as the chances of snowfall outside of the mountains are quite slim.