Lead Forecaster Daniel Crawley
Good Wednesday morning to all. We are looking at another seasonally cold day across Western North Carolina as we transition toward our next weather system.
Through the lower portions of the atmosphere, a weak high pressure to our north continues to drain cold, dry air in on northeast winds. That will make for a nice day overall with a mix of sun and clouds.
By tonight things change abruptly as high moves east and a strong southeast fetch begins to build up across the Southeast. That will advect moisture over the cool air, clouds will thicken in a hurry.
The upslope component will begin to produce showers after midnight for a large part of the coverage area and by daybreak Thursday shower coverage will be widespread.
40-45 knot winds at 5000ft will be placed right along the escarpment by 5 am on Thursday. The mechanical cooling along with the cold air in place may set up a brief transition area along the Blue Ridge Parkway where some of this precipitation may freeze on tree tops and elevated surfaces.
Locations from roughly Jonas Ridge to near Yadkin Valley could see brief freezing rain before daybreak as temps hover close to the freezing mark. Impacts should be very minimal. Winter Weather Advisory has been issued
Rainfall amounts overall for this event looks to be in the 1/2 inch to 3/4 inch range through Thursday night.
