Lead Forecaster Daniel Crawley
Good Tuesday morning to everyone, we continue to monitor Ian, which is now a major Hurricane crossing the Western tip of Cuba.
Now that we are between 3-4 days out, it’s time to hone in on some details and how Ian could impact Western North Carolina.
Here’s a look at the latest update and forecast track from the National Hurricane Center.
The steering currents after tomorrow are really going to weaken from Florida and into the Southeast. All players are on the table for a long duration rain event for parts of the Southeast including Western North Carolina. The global and Hurricane models are all pulling Ian north and then meandering around through the entire weekend.
The video below is from the deterministic run of the European and you can see where the leftovers of Ian once they push inland, they are in no hurry to leave. Infact latest trends indicate that rain could persist until as late as Monday now.
Here’s a look at the latest precipitation forecast from the Weather Prediction Center through next Monday morning. Everyone is likely to receive some significant amounts of rain, it’s our favored upslope regions where amounts could be well over five inches before the event winds down.
We will begin creating custom rainfall forecasts with tomorrows forecast package.
Weather Prediction Center is highlighting a large section of the Southeast in its experimental outlooks for Days 4-5.
The one saving grace for Western North Carolina is that we are in week three of an extended dry spell. The initial rounds of rainfall will go into the ground and will be held by local river basins. The flood threat will increase as we go later into the weekend.
Be Weather Aware this weekend!