Lead Forecaster Daniel Crawley
Good Saturday evening everyone, it has been a cloudy and soggy start to the weekend across the Western Carolinas due to an upper trough along the Gulf Coast and a persistent southeast fetch of moisture up against the Blue Ridge Mountains.
Thankfully precipitation amounts have been within control over the past 18 hours. Amounts in the 1-2 inch range in the immediate Blue Ridge with amounts of less than an inch in the Western Piedmont. Flash Flood threat that we feared possible a few days ago is not going to materialize.
For a look at precipitation amounts in our eight county coverage area check out the Foothills SkyNet
Over the next 36-48 hours the Western Carolinas remain in deep SSW flow at 500 mb with easterly component at the low levels. Some vort maxes will follow the mean flow aloft and that will be the trigger for shower and thunderstorm activity.
One vort may bring some enhanced wet weather tonight to the Piedmont. Sunday’s activity will be dependent on if we can get any surface heating to destabilize things.
By Monday a frontal boundary will be sliding through the Tennessee Valley and then entering the Southern Appalachians by late day. Monday afternoon could end up being the best chance of storms the next 48 hours as the best forcing/lift moves through.
Looking at the heights aloft, the upper trough/low across the Great Lakes Region will bring in a change in the wet weather pattern we have seen over the past week. Once we get to Tuesday we may go with several days of dry weather for the midweek timeframe.
The most notable change for Western North Carolina is the lowering of humidity and Dewpoints from summer levels down to a feel of more fall-like weather.
Daytime highs will jump back up to the low 80’s come mid week with the increased sun but the evening and night time hours will be very pleasant with low humidity. Night time lows in the Foothills/Piedmont could get down into the 50’s especially Wednesday and Thursday morning. It will feel even more like fall in the mountains where 70’s will be prevailing with cool nights (upper 40’s/lower 50’s)