Tropics Awaken As We Enter September, Threat to United States Appear Minimal At This Time

Lead Forecaster Daniel Crawley

After going nearly two months without a named tropical system in the Atlantic Basin we now have two features, Danielle which formed late yesterday in the North-Central Atlantic and Earl has formed late Friday evening ENE of the Lesser Antilles.

As you can see on the Water Vapor Image above, both systems are fairly small in size and they are also surrounded by some wind shear and dry air (orange and yellow colors) in the mid levels of the atmosphere. Both of these variables will help limit intensification through the next 3-5 days…

As you can see neither storm looks to bring a threat to the United States during the current forecast period. An upper low may develop across the Southeast next week along with a stout west-to-east flow in the northern jet, that should provide a steering current to keep storms well off shore in the long term.

Depending on exactly how far west Earl gets, there could be a glancing blow to Bermuda. Danielle might threaten Europe as an extratropical cyclone.

We are now within a week or so of the climatological peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, more develop may occur in the MDR (Main Development Region) over the next few weeks.

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