Tropical Update: Gulf Coast Tropical Development This Week?

Lead Forecaster Daniel Crawley

Good Sunday evening to everyone,

We have been dealing with an active weather pattern lately across the Carolinas and a frontal boundary has now slid to our south. At this time of the year we need to pay close attention to what occurs along the front. This is a prime candidate for homegrown tropical development.

For those who might have vacation plans over the next seven days along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana may want to closely monitor what’s going on.

We are going to see a classic trough-split occur as the current trough over the east will leave a piece behind over the Southeast and Northern Gulf of Mexico.

Euro Ensemble 500 mb height anomalies (Tues 8 am)

Once we get to midweek there will be a significant weakness in the upper atmosphere across the Southeast, a light steering flow will allow any disturbed weather to fester in the Northern Gulf.

Euro Ensemble 500 mb height anomalies (Wed 8 am)

The European Ensembles is now picking up on the pattern recognition as it shows modest probabilities of a tropical depression by late this upcoming week.

Regardless of name recognition, the pattern looks very wet along the Gulf Coast through all of next week. With southwest flow aloft some of that moisture will also advect inland. We’ll have to ultimately see if this could influence the weather here at home at some point?

Euro ENS 10 Day Precipitation Anomalies

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