A Look Ahead: The 4th of July Weekend Edition

Lead Forecaster Daniel Crawley

Good Tuesday morning to everyone. The short term weather pattern looks straight-forward for the region. So lets look ahead to an important weekend coming up, the Fourth of July Holiday Weekend.

With July 4th falling on a Monday the weekend leading into it will also feature a lot of activities. Several municipalities are holding July 4th celebrations on Saturday July 2nd.

So, what kind of weather should we expect?…

Looking at the synoptics, a broad 500 mb ridge will cover the entire southern half of the nation. There is also a ridge that lines up across Western North America and a resultant trough into Eastern Canada. This pattern is probably going to lead to a seasonally moist atmosphere with overall weak forcing and maybe some brief intrusions of less humid air trying to get down into Upper Southeast from time to time.

500 mb height anomalies (Jul 1-6)

The next couple days will feature some less humid air for North Carolina but you can already see by Friday there will be some high octane air in place across the Southeast to serve as thunderstorm fuel. All it’s waiting on will be that trigger. And we know by early July, those triggers will have to be leftover boundaries and the Southern Appalachians.

We’re basically looking for a close to normal temperature pattern as well thanks in part to no massive heat ridge in place like we experienced a couple weeks ago. Afternoon storms will be a possibility but considering how most of us has been dry lately, I would side toward more hit than miss. Remember: Drought begets Drought!

Climo-Averages for July 1st:

Hickory: High 87, Low 67

Morganton: High 87, Low 65

Shelby: High 89, Low 67

Lincolnton: High 88, Low 67

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