Lead Forecaster Daniel Crawley
Good Saturday to everyone. If you have been outside today you have probably noticed a significant reduction in the heat and humidity. The absurdly muggy airmass is being pushed out and by tomorrow morning it will be quite refreshing for late June standards.
Soak it all in as we are going back into the cooker for next week. High pressure aloft will begin to shift back east on Monday and by Tuesday/Wednesday some of the hottest weather in the Eastern US will be centered over North Carolina, once again!
850mb temperatures across the Western Carolinas will rival the temperatures we had earlier this week, so in terms of actual temperatures the chance is there to match or possible exceed the numbers we saw earlier this week…the hottest temps at 850 (approx 5.000 ft) will be late Tuesday and into Wednesday.
The big difference with heat wave #2 is that humidity will be hard to recover from the nice airmass expected currently. So therefor the heat index values will be closer to the actual air temp. There’s even the chance of a reverse heat index value because dewpoints will be in the 40’s and 50’s at times.
Here’s a look at what guidance is suggesting for the region next week…the lower end of the guidance (GFS) showing upper 90’s while the bullish Euro indicated recording breaking heat. As of right now we are leaning toward the lower end of the scale.
The less humid air also means lower rain chances and with this kind of heat, we’re probably looking at a return to drought conditions by the end of the month. Here is the update from a couple days ago…