A Look Ahead: Early Spring Rollercoaster Continues

Lead Forecaster Daniel Crawley

Good Saturday afternoon everyone hope your weekend is off to a great start. Let’s take a look at the weather and the pattern expected for the next several days.

High pressure at the surface is established across the region and for this weekend that means we will have some nice weather across Western North Carolina. Typical early spring type weather where we have cool starts to the day but afternoon temperatures rebound accordingly.

Looking at the 500 millibar height pattern across North America we will remain tranquil through the weekend. Changes will begin as we get into early next week due to another trough that will be forming across the plains, this upper feature will get stuck between two ridges. This will result initially in a good bit of moisture being pulled up from the Gulf of Mexico starting on Tuesday across the southeast and lasting through the mid week.

Anytime you deal you with amplification this time of the year severe weather is possible. The Storm Prediction Center has already Outlooked the southeast once again for severe weather potential Tuesday through Thursday of this upcoming week.

Regardless of the severe weather threat it appears that another decent rainfall event is in store for the Western Carolina‘s beginning on Tuesday.

By late next work week the trough will slide into the eastern US and it appears that another bout of cold air will move into the trough position which will be firmly centered over the Appalachians. Model ensemble guidance indicates that some of the coldest air temperatures aloft in the United States will be centered over the Tennessee valley and Southern Appalachians by next Saturday.

This will make for a chilly time next weekend in the Carolinas where another frost/freeze threat looms.