Lead Forecaster Daniel Crawley
Good Monday morning to everyone, we have been in the midst of a spring breakout over the past week or so. Flowers are blooming quickly across the region and you’ve probably also noticed the pollen is really ratcheting up at this time.
We have seen some quite warm temperatures in the past few days, we have seen 80s for the first time in 2022 and the evenings have been quite mild with temperatures not getting down below to 50° mark.
Southwest winds is pumping moisture into the region. That moisture will begin to fall as soon as late this afternoon due to a cold front that will be passing through the region. A few thunderstorms, some on the string side are possible late today.
Storm production center has outlined the region for a slight risk of severe weather later today. Damaging winds are possible if the storms hold together.
This will be the first multiple rounds of precipitation expected over the next five days across western North Carolina and the Southeast US as a whole. Deep southwest flow will continue with individual disturbances triggering rounds of precipitation.
By the time the precipitation ends on Saturday a lot of the region could pick up a significant amount of rainfall, possibly as much as 3 inches in local spots. Everyone should see at least 1 inch of rain this week.
Cold weekend coming up…
A major trough will be digging and establishing itself across the eastern United States as we head into this weekend. This will deliver a shock to the system and a reminder that it is still early in March.
Temperatures will fall in a big way on Saturday and those night time temperatures especially Sunday and Monday mornings of next week will be a rude reminder of what late winter can be like in the Western Carolinas.
The ensemble guidance above shows that we could be well down into the 20s on a couple of those mornings. That will zap some of the plants and buds that have bloomed recently.