Good Monday Evening. I hope your day has been a good one. Here is a short blog post highlighting our evening forecast package release.
Some high clouds will be around tonight but it will remain mostly clear. Low temps will fall back into the upper 20’s over much of the area. Our mountain areas will likely fall into the mid 20’s. A few areas near the SC boarder may hang on to 30°.
We are expecting mostly sunny skies Tuesday but clouds will likely increase Tuesday Afternoon. Another seasonable day in store with temps rising to around 50° area wide. Another chilly night in store for Tuesday Night into Wednesday as winds remain light.
High pressure will start to move east as another big trough and frontal boundary starts to spread ESE from the Rockies. It will take it’s time getting here and through our area though. Ahead of the front, southerly flow will develop Wednesday into Thursday which will allow our temperatures to warm but will also bring more moisture into the area. There will be no precipitation type issues with this system, all rain. If you will notice in the 7 Day Forecast we have kept the precipitation totals on the low side even though rain chances are high. Generally speaking only .25 to .50 inch is expected across the entire area. Those totals could need to be adjusted up just a bit depending on moisture availability with the front Friday. Slightly higher amounts are possible in the mountains. With those southerly winds, look for highs around 60° Thursday with low 60’s Friday just ahead of the front.
The front will move into and through the region finally on Friday before stalling along the coast. The flow becomes more of a split flow though and a trough develops in the southern stream over Texas Friday Night into Saturday.
This leads us to Sunday. Both the GFS and Euro develop upper level short waves. This spawns the development of low pressure along the stalled front in the Gulf and both models bring the system north up the front. The Euro is much weaker with the system than the GFS and has precipitation amounts light. The GFS is more bullish with precipitation and is quicker with the system. GFS brings the moisture in Sunday while the Euro is about 12 hours later, starting Monday Morning. With the position of the low pressure and high pressure building in behind that stalled frontal boundary, a cold air damming scenario appears likely. This would cause precipitation type issues. Boundary layer issues aloft look problematic as well with a warm nose appearing on both solutions. So sleet or freezing rain would most likely be the precipitation types depending on how this system evolves. It will require watching close.