Some Temperature Moderation Expected as February Begins, How Long Will It Last?

Lead Forecaster Daniel Crawley

Good Saturday evening, hope your weekend is off to a great start. It is quite cold across Western North Carolina as another deep Eastern North American trough has plowed through the region. This trough brought another round of snow to the North Carolina Mountains and even some snowfall to Central and Eastern NC/SC overnight. Our eight county coverage area was pretty much left void of snowfall.

The generally cold weather pattern we have seen in January has been due to persistent Western North America Ridging (+PNA). As we get into the upcoming work week it appears that the cold pattern will relax for a few days. As you can see on the 5-Day Height Anomaly, the trough will move into the Rockies will an east coast ridge tries to nose in.

You can see the effects of this shift in the pattern showing up in the numerical guidance. Our region looks to get temperatures slightly above normal from Tuesday through Friday of this upcoming week...climatological averages for the Northern Foothills for Tuesday February 1st is 51/28 and for the Southern Foothills it is 54/29.

This warmup in the pattern may allow for a significant storm system to move to our west and drag a cold front through the Carolinas on Thursday. With the milder conditions it should result in precipitation types being liquid form only.

Will The Milder Temperatures Settle in Long Term?

So this is the big question everyone has. Does the milder weather stick around and are we done with winter?

A few days ago when this milder pattern began to show up on the grids there were indications that it would have some staying power. However, latest trends indicate this week’s warmup will be transient in nature.

Showing up on most global guidance is a return to the West Coast Ridge (+PNA) and a trough settling in across the Eastern and Central US once we get toward the week of February 7th.

5-Day Height Anomaly (Feb 5 – 10)

5-Day Temperature Anomaly (Feb 5 – 10)

So, if you are a fan of mild weather get out and enjoy what you can this week. And for winter weather lovers, don’t give up on the chances of another bout or two of storminess in the long range. February has had some very notable winter weather events over the years.

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