Good Wednesday afternoon, hope everyone is doing well. Our region remains in a stagnant weather pattern thanks in part to a closed upper low that is centered across Arkansas and separated from the jet stream.
This upper low along with Atlantic moisture at the surface has been the catalyst for rain showers that has impacted the region over the past few days. This upper low will continue to provide an unsettled pattern over the next couple days.
The upper low will begin to weaken on Thursday as it slowly begins to lift north and is finally captured by the jet stream. By Friday the low opens up into more of a north-south trough axis. With this being to our west on Friday, we still believe shower chances will be in the 50/50 range.
The trough axis will eventually slide through during the weekend and by early next week a skinny SW-to-NE oriented ridge will establish itself and that will finally dry things out.
The ridge by this time next week will center itself and broaden across the Southeast meaning dry weather is firmly in place.
There is no cold air to tap into with the upcoming pattern. In fact temperatures will be several degrees above normal for this time of the year. Plus there will be some humidity lingering around as well leading to a humid feel to the air.
As you can see on the guidance, temps are going to be mild for quite a while. Once we get to mid-month the average high is in the low 70’s with night time temps in the upper 40’s, we are not going to be close to any of those values for about the next two weeks.
If you are a fan of fall weather it’s going to be a while before we get locked in!
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Thanks for the long range look