Good Monday afternoon, Tropical Storm Ida is located across West Central Mississippi at the noon hour and it moving north-northeast. Ida will turn move northeast as we head into later today, will cross into NW Alabama late tonight and into Central Tennessee on Tuesday…
Ida will have some impacts on the weather locally, though not nearly as extensive as places south and west of us.
Click below on the model guidance for where the remnants of Ida and its moisture envelope will go through Wednesday afternoon.
There has been a slightly easterly trend in the short range guidance since yesterday, plus the guidance has picked up more on the intensity of the remnants as it moves to our north and west.
A 40 kt southerly jet will impact the upslope regions on Tuesday and early Wednesday providing a trigger for repetitive shower activity.
This is going to require us to increase some of the forecast amounts of precipitation. Where as yesterday we thought areas east of the mountains would receive a half-in or less, we now believe the Piedmont could be in store for something in the .50 – 1.50 inch range through Wednesday evening.
Across the Foothills we are now anticipating 1-2 inch amounts away from the immediate eastern slopes and 2-4 inch amounts on the Blue Ridge Escarpment (NW sections of Rutherford, McDowell, Burke, Caldwell)
At this time we believe any flash flood threat will be on an isolated basis and most likely along the Immediate Blue Ridge. Most areas can probably handle forecasted amounts at this time…
The final ingredient we will need to watch will be with the feeder band that crosses the region Tuesday night and Wednesday, guidance hints at some surface CAPE (fuel) that could provide a low wind threat and a non-zero threat of a spin-up.
We’ll keep an eye on things and update as we get closer.
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