Tropical Moisture Squeeze Play to Focus Over the Southeast

Good Saturday to everyone,

We continue to monitor the weather pattern that is expected to evolve across the Southeast US over the next 5-7 days. First off the National Hurricane Center has finally downgraded Fred to a remnant tropical wave located roughly off the Western Coastline of Cuba as of 11 am this morning…

Fred has really struggled over the past few days, starting with its trek of Hispaniola, then turning left into Cuba. The land interaction took its toll on Fred. But also, an upper low to the north of Fred has provided a shearing mechanism as well. click on the link below to view water vapor image.

Even with all the factors that has led to Fred’s degeneration, most computer model guidance indicates that regeneration may occur starting on Sunday as the upper low begins to move north and into the Southeast US. Therefor the National Hurricane Center will continue to post forecast advisories…

All of this commotion in the Gulf of Mexico (named or not) is going to play a big role in our weather in the Western Carolinas.

A good ol’ fashioned squeeze play is about to take place. A strong Bermuda High continues to influence the weather here locally and it’s going to tag team with what ever comes out of the Gulf to provide a sustained South and Southeast fetch of moisture into the region.

850 mb flow (Sunday 8 pm)

By Sunday night you can see the long fetch of onshore winds developing. Here locally that will begin to interact with the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge wringing out moisture. A frontal boundary will be nearby as well providing an additional mechanism of overrunning moisture. I’d get out and enjoy today’s sunshine because it’s going to be a while before we see it again.

As we get into Monday and Monday night, we continue to see whatever is left along the Gulf Coast and the Bermuda High working in tandem. The southeast flow continues to pump in copious amounts of moisture, so Monday should be another cloudy, showery day.

850mb flow (Tuesday 8 am)

Once we get into the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe our region will likely be entering into the peak of this event. The upper low across the Southeast continues to slowly pull north while the Bermuda High is stuck in place. The southeast flow off the Atlantic at 850mb has become quite strong and if by chance Fred tries to regenerate it’s direct moisture will become entrained into the flow pattern. Shower activity will be widespread at this point.

850mb flow (Tuesday 8 pm)

By the time all is said and done the region could see anywhere from a couple inches of rain to several inches of rain along the Blue Ridge Escarpment. Flash flooding may become a real issue at some point in this pattern.

WPC Precipitation Outlook (Through Thurs PM)

As we mentioned a couple days ago we are nearing the heart of the Hurricane Season and sure enough there is another system on the heels of Fred. Tropical Storm Grace is destined to take a similar path in the long term.

Be Weather Aware over the next few days, we will keep an eye on things and will update you as needed.

Leave a Reply

%d bloggers like this: