By: Lead Forecaster Daniel Crawley
Good Wednesday afternoon,
Tropical Storm Isaias continues to organize this afternoon and is on its way to being the first hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. This late date to achieve hurricane status for the first time in the season will be a new record for the satellite era.
A center re-location late this afternoon has stacked Isaias vertically and even with some wind shear, the compact size of the storm is allowing for steady intensification during the next 24-plus hours.
Here is a look at the Wednesday 5 pm advisory from the National Hurricane Center…
The NHC forecast lies close to the middle of the guidance envelope. Some AI based hurricane ensembles do lie further east with a potential landfall on the Florida Panhandle on Friday night. We shall see if other guidance tries to shift east again over the next day.
As the hurricane comes inland, the combination of steering flow on the eastern side of Isaias and high pressure off the east coast will allow southeast winds to surge into the Carolinas on Saturday creating upslope rainfall along the Eastern and Southern Escarpment in western North Carolina. Some moisture will also run east of the mountains in the Carolinas but the escarpment region looks to be the biggest target for locally heavy rainfall, starting Saturday afternoon and lasting through parts of Sunday.
The overall impacts from the remnants of Isaias should be on the lower end of the scale. As far as rain/flooding goes, recent dry weather has allowed stream levels to remain low. With the expected rainfall forecast (2-4 inches Blue Ridge, 1-2 inches east of mountains) local rivers and lakes should be able to withstand the moisture that is anticipated.
Late Saturday and early Sunday as Isaias moves to our due west, warm sector winds from the southwest may introduce a non-zero severe weather threat to go along with the heavy rain. We do think some of the higher terrrain in WNC (above 3,000 ft elevation) may have wind gusts reaching 40 mph as times.
To summarize everything, here is a listing of key points as Isaias continues to strengthen. Foothills Weather Network will have more updates on this weather event over the next few days.
