Severe Thunderstorms Possible Today; MCS Setup Over Next Few Days Under Ring of Fire.

Today is shaping up to be another active weather day across the Foothills and western North Carolina, with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing through the afternoon and evening. While not everyone will see severe weather, a few storms could become strong enough to produce damaging wind gusts, especially between 2 PM and midnight. Some locations could see more than one round of storms before things gradually settle down overnight.

The atmosphere is becoming increasingly unstable this afternoon as warm, humid air continues to build across the region. That combination will provide plenty of fuel for thunderstorms, and a few storms may organize into clusters capable of producing pockets of damaging straight-line winds. While western North Carolina appears to have the greatest coverage of storms, anyone across the Foothills, Upstate South Carolina, and northeast Georgia should stay weather aware this afternoon and tonight. As always this time of year, not every storm will be severe, but the ones that do become stronger can quickly produce dangerous wind gusts capable of downing trees and power lines.

Storm chances continue into Sunday, although the setup becomes a little more complicated. Winds high in the atmosphere will turn out of the northwest, a pattern meteorologists often call the “Ring of Fire.” This pattern can send clusters of thunderstorms southeast from the Midwest and Appalachians with little warning. Depending on how today’s storms evolve, leftover clouds and rain-cooled air could limit how strong Sunday’s storms become, but we’ll continue to monitor the potential closely since timing will play a major role in determining the overall threat.

Once we get beyond the weekend, our attention quickly shifts from storms to the heat.

A strong upper-level ridge of high pressure will gradually expand eastward over the southeastern United States through the middle of next week. That ridge will bring hotter temperatures each day while also reducing our afternoon thunderstorm coverage outside of the mountains. High temperatures will climb into the lower and middle 90s across much of the Foothills by Tuesday, with many communities reaching the mid-90s by Wednesday. A few traditionally hotter locations could even approach the upper 90s.

When combined with the humidity, heat index values could exceed 100 degrees across much of the Foothills and Piedmont for several consecutive afternoons. If current trends continue, heat advisories may eventually become necessary during the middle and latter part of next week. Even though humidity may mix out slightly during the hottest part of the afternoon, it likely won’t be enough to prevent dangerous heat from developing.

At this point, there are very few signs that this heat wave will break before the Independence Day holiday weekend. Forecast guidance continues to keep the upper-level ridge in place, meaning several days of above-normal temperatures appear increasingly likely.

If you have outdoor plans this weekend or throughout next week, make preparations now. Drink plenty of water before you become thirsty, take frequent breaks in the shade or air conditioning, wear lightweight clothing, and never leave children or pets inside a parked vehicle for any amount of time. Heat-related illnesses can develop quickly during prolonged periods of hot and humid weather.

We’ll continue to monitor both this afternoon’s severe weather potential and next week’s developing heat wave and will provide updates as conditions change.