Continued Rain Probabilities, Minimal Severe Storm Risk, and Uncertain Weekend Forecast

Monday began with widespread cloud cover, particularly persistent near the Blue Ridge. By mid-afternoon, most regions experienced a return to sunshine.

The early portion of the next two days is expected to be active meteorologically. A low-pressure system over the Great Lakes will move a trailing cold front across the region early Tuesday. Widespread rainfall is anticipated between 3:00 and 5:00 am, with precipitation moving east by noon. Most locations are forecast to receive between 0.10 and 0.25 inches of rain. Higher amounts are expected near the Blue Ridge, while areas along Highway 321 and Highway 16 will likely receive lower totals.

As the cold front stalls to the south late Tuesday, the southern stream is expected to facilitate the development of a mesoscale vorticity maximum (MCV) over the Mississippi-Alabama region. This MCV will approach the area from Tuesday night into Wednesday. Sufficient wind shear ahead of the system may support clusters of heavier storms on Wednesday morning. However, instability is forecast to remain low due to the timing of the MCV’s arrival. Although the probability of severe weather is less than 1%, there is a minimal risk of damaging winds, particularly during the morning commute. Rainfall coverage is projected to be robust, with 70-80% of the area likely to receive more than 0.25 inches of precipitation. Residents are advised to prepare for a wet morning commute. By noon, rain should have moved through the area. We will see if there is enough energy left for a few showers in the afternoon. Meanwhile, if your travels take you east of I-77, there could be a more marginal setup for severe weather on Wednesday Afternoon.

Nonetheless, we dry out by Thursday Morning with some patchy fog to start your day. While we remain dry Thursday and Friday, rain chances may return for the weekend. There is a lot of uncertainty in that rain event, though, as the GFS and EURO differ greatly on their solutions. Left rain chances at 30% for now, though Saturday and Sunday are expected to be dry.