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As of 11:00 am Thursday, we continue to monitor our winter storm that is expected to impact the area this weekend. Significant amounts of snow are possible, which could cause mainly travel and visibility issues.
Upper-level energy will dive south tomorrow (Friday) from Canada into the Ohio Valley. This piece of energy will become more amplified as it drives into the base of a east coast trough that is responsible for delivering more arctic air to the region. Upper low pressure will then transfer energy to a developing low-pressure center along the Carolina Coast.
As the upper low moves to our south toward the East Coast, snow will develop across much of Western North Carolina on Friday Evening. Snow will likely band in a convective nature as it becomes more widespread. Dry air could impact snow totals from what models are producing.
In fact, snow accumulation totals stand the best chance to bust along and west of the 18-64 corridor from Lenoir, Morganton, to Forest City. While some areas west of there could still achieve the 2-inch forecast total, there could be just as many areas in this zone that do not. For that reason, we have highlighted that area as possibly receiving less than 2 inches of accumulation. It will be tough to determine whose backyard sees what in this zone.
Overall, though, the forecast remains on track as the upper low tracks to the south and then pulls East by Saturday Afternoon. Snow will intensify Saturday along and East of I-77, where significant amounts of snow are expected.
Winds will become gusty on Saturday as low pressure rapidly deepens (bombs out) along the Carolina Coast Line. Areas along the coast could see sustained winds of tropical storm to hurricane force Saturday and Sunday. Locally, across Western NC, wind gusts to 30mph will be possible. This will blow the dry, fluffy snow around quite a bit. The snow ratios that we are using for this event are 16:1.
It is important to note that the best chance of receiving a boom over achieving an event in our area will be along Highway 16 from Taylorsville to Newton to Charlotte. If the upper low remains in tact longer and pulls the developing low pressure just 20 miles further west, this zone may get into the 4-8 inch totals.
We still have 24 hours until our final call maps go out. This update serves as an interim briefing on what we are seeing based on science. Stay tuned for further information.
