Key Messages
1. There’s Growing Interest in a Potential Winter Weather Event Sunday
Recent trends in one of the more consistent model runs suggest snow could develop late Saturday night into Sunday across parts of the Carolinas, especially east of the mountains. That said, other model suites haven’t yet shown strong support for this idea. Experience tells us to watch the trend more than any single run, and right now the trend is worth noting — but confidence remains low.
2. Pattern Recognition Supports Some Winter Potential
This weekend’s setup features ingredients we’ve seen before in past winter weather events: a deepening upper trough, strengthening lift, and cold air moving in behind it. This doesn’t guarantee snow, but when these elements come together, wintry weather can happen in our region — particularly across the foothills and Piedmont.
3. Regardless of Snow, Colder Air Is on the Way
Even if snow doesn’t pan out, colder air is expected behind the system. Temperatures will run 10 to 15 degrees below normal early next week, with wind chills near advisory levels in the mountains Tuesday morning.
What We’re Watching
The first system exits Saturday, but the focus shifts quickly to a stronger upper-level disturbance diving into the Southeast by Saturday night. As this disturbance deepens the trough and pulls in colder air, we’ll be watching closely for how much moisture develops and where it sets up.
Right now, the GFS model has shown several runs with snow across our area, with some ensemble members supporting this. Other models — including the Canadian and ECMWF — either keep most of the moisture to our east or offshore, and don’t show much support for snow in the foothills. Until more of these models come into agreement, confidence in any specific snowfall forecast will stay low.
However, when we see a consistent trend in one model and a favorable large-scale setup, it grabs our attention.
Cold Pattern Early Next Week
Behind this weekend’s system, a colder air mass settles over the region Monday into Tuesday. Highs both days will be well below normal, and early Tuesday morning could bring wind chills near advisory levels in the northern mountains and higher elevations.
In Summary
- We’re watching the potential for snow or a rain/snow mix Sunday morning, especially east of the mountains.
- The overall pattern supports some winter weather, but forecast confidence remains low due to a lack of consensus among guidance.
- Cold air will return behind the system, with well-below-normal temperatures lasting into early next week.
Stay tuned—we’ll continue to monitor this closely and provide updates as the picture becomes clearer.
