2025-26 Winter Outlook: Potential exist for variable conditions this winter

Good Sunday evening to everyone,

After long analysis of global weather patterns we have come up with a Winter Forecast for the 2025-26 season. Special thanks to Wendy B’s Embroidery & Screen Printing for sponsoring the winter weather coverage this year. They are located at 3076 NC Hwy 18 South in Morganton. Visit the Wendy B’s website for all your embroidery and screen printing needs.

Every season we look at a lot of the factors that are playing into the winter forecast across the Southeast US.

Fading La Nina?

Globally, we remain in a weak La Nina, an ENSO state that we have been in for several winters. The La Nina is representative of Pacific equatorial waters that are running cooler than normal. A typical jet stream pattern during a La Nina can feature fast moving systems from west-to-east with colder air remaining in the Plains, Midwest and Northeast US.

Arctic snow cover running close to normal

After a fast start in late September/early October to the cold season in the arctic, things have slowed down some over the past three weeks but we are still looking at snow cover that is close to normal for this time of the year. This snow and ice cover allows to refrigerate the polar and arctic airmasses so when there are major buckles in the jet stream, cold air can invade the US without a lot of moderation. While we are near normal this year, this is more than we have seen in recent winters. Something to keep in mind once the season begins.

Late season typhoons has amped the jet stream

Another difference so far in the fall of 2025 compared to previous years has been the injection of Pacific Basin typhoons that can help amplify the jet stream, early in the early winter. We can get some big troughs to slide into the Eastern U.S., much like we are seeing in real time. These big dips can yield some major winter storms later on.

So, with an amped jet and sufficient enough cold air near the arctic, can we possibly negate some of the negative factors behind La Nina?

We think that is a possibility especially when the grips of La Nina loosen further in the early weeks of 2026.

Now that we have broken down the pieces to the puzzle behind our winter forecast, here’s a monthly and season breakdown of what to expect…

December 2025

We may begin winter with temperatures that remain above normal for the most part, a zonal flow with occasional rain events. It’s really an extension of what we are experiencing in November. West and northwest flow may favor more precipitation in the North Carolina Mountains compared to the Foothills and Piedmont.

January 2026

We do believe that the new year will reveal the fading influence of La Nina. Look for the new year to feature above normal precipitation and colder than normal temperatures. We have a feeling that the back half of January may be very active from a storm producing standpoint along the East Coast.

February 2026

The active end of January may spill over into the early part of February as storm systems may be frequent. Precipitation should be at-or-above normal. By the last part of the month, we could be looking at the end of La Nina and the transition into neutral state of the ENSO.

Winter 2025-26 Overview

With a fading La Nina, the winter as a whole opens the door for volatility in the pattern across the Eastern US. This could end up being a back-loaded winter with snow opportunities especially in the Jan 15 – Feb 15 timeframe. A severe weather element can’t be ruled out as well in February. It’s hard to get season-long cold spells in North Carolina so therefor we see temperatures as being slightly above normal. However that does not eliminate the potential of significant winter storms.

Our fearless 2025-26 snowfall forecast

Recent winters have been tough on snow lovers across western North Carolina. We reached out to the National Weather Service for data over the past 30-years and it has took a toll on averages across the board. The last 3 winters in particular have been void of major storms. This has all happened during a prolonged La Nina. Our forecast for this winter is one that we think may reverse the trend of recent winters. With the idea that neutral conditions will exist late in the winter and the idea that an El Nino could exist late in 2026, could this winter be the primer to something more active long term?

Summary

1. La Nina continues to fade into ENSO neutral conditions as we go into the first quarter of 2026
2. Early active jet thanks to late season Pacific typhoons could help amp the jet at times in December.
3. ENSO neutral conditions begin late January and into February, that could provide potential for back-loaded winter weather.

Once again, special thanks to Wendy B’s Embroidery & Screen Printing for sponsoring the winter weather coverage this year. They are located at 3076 NC Hwy 18 South in Morganton. Visit the Wendy B’s website for all your embroidery and screen printing needs.