Good Friday afternoon to everyone, yesterday was an active weather day across western North Carolina as severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds impacted many communities. The good news is that the front associated with the storms has moved to the coastline. There is a developing low pressure near the Gulf Coast with a broad upper low located in Oklahoma and Texas.
The upper level feature will dive southeast and combine with the surface low and deep moisture to form into a cutoff low that will change the weather by late in the weekend.
Saturday 8 am
The cutoff is in the stage of intensifying by Saturday morning with a strong flow of moisture coming in but across North Carolina, we will still be influenced by high pressure to the north. That should lead to another nice weather day with temperatures in the upper 70’s and low 80’s with low humidity.
Sunday 8 pm
Sunday will be a day of transition across North Carolina with southeast winds just off the surface overriding the leftover dry air from the northwest. With the upslope orientation this is highly suggestive of clouds, light precipitation and a hybrid-wedge scenario.
Monday PM
Upper low across the Lower Mississippi River Valley may begin to lift northward and that will provide a strong LLJ from the South-Southeast into North Carolina. Precipitable water values could exceed 1.5 inches. The items look to be on the table for heavy rainfall.
The end result looks to be a multi-day precipitation event that could provide significant rainfall to the region with our eastern upslope locations primed to get between 2-4 inches through Tuesday. Look for parts of the region to be placed in a marginal or slight risk for excessive rainfall for Monday when those products are updated by the Weather Prediction Center tomorrow.
