This upcoming week is shaping up to be the wettest since the remnants of Hurricane Helene impacted the region. While the flooding risks are not expected to be as widespread or severe, the potential for flash flooding will increase by Wednesday afternoon as a stalled frontal boundary fuels heavy rainfall across the western North Carolina foothills.
Today (Sunday) will be the last mild and mostly dry day before an active weather pattern takes hold. Highs will reach the low 70s across much of the region, with partly cloudy skies and a southwest breeze at 10-20 mph. A backdoor cold front will move in from the north later in the day, dropping temperatures sharply by Monday morning.
Monday will be noticeably cooler, with highs struggling to reach the upper 40s as cold air damming (CAD) develops. Light rain and drizzle will be possible, though precipitation amounts should remain minimal. By Monday night, a strengthening frontal boundary will lift back north, bringing widespread rainfall into Tuesday. Temperatures will remain chilly, and locations along the Blue Ridge may even see a brief wintry mix early Tuesday morning before transitioning to rain.
Tuesday and Wednesday will be the wettest period of the week, with multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rain expected. Rainfall totals of 1-2 inches are likely, with localized higher amounts possible. With already saturated ground, flash flooding could become a concern by Wednesday afternoon, especially in poor drainage areas and near streams and creeks.
Rain will continue into Thursday before a brief break in precipitation arrives Friday. However, another storm system will likely bring additional rainfall by Saturday lasting into Sunday of next week. The good news is that by Monday, drier conditions will settle in, bringing sunshine and more seasonable temperatures.
We encourage our followers to remain weather-aware throughout the week, especially Tuesday through Thursday, when the heaviest rain is expected. While the flooding risks are not forecast to be as extreme as during Helene, localized flash flooding will be possible, particularly in flood-prone areas. Stay tuned for updates as we monitor this prolonged period of wet weather.
Forecast rainfall across the region.