Good Tuesday afternoon,
It is approximately 1:30 pm on Tuesday Jan 7th as we update on the now likelihood of a winter storm across the Western Carolinas, the first widespread event in about three years for the region.
Check out the graphic below talking about the latest in what may be coming on Friday…
The players on the table remain the same, we have cold air in place across North Carolina with a reinforcement coming on Thursday. Also, snowpack to our north and northwest is helping refrigerate the incoming cold air. Meanwhile, southern stream energy will organize over the next 48 hours and bring a shot of moisture toward the Carolinas.
There has been a notable shift in the guidance that lends to the idea of enough cold air in place on Friday to where everyone is the coverage area should begin as a period of snow Friday afternoon, it’s once we get into later Friday night that a warm nose between 5,000 – 10,000 ft could impinge on locations I-40 and south. That could result in a transition over to sleet or freezing rain.
It is still too early to make any first calls on accumulation, however the ensemble guidance used in mid-range forecast paints the picture of accumulating snowfall. Below is a graphic showing a high percentage that everyone west of Interstate 77 could see at least 1 inch of snow.
On top of that we are starting to see an increase in probabilities of 4 inches of snow or more west of US 321. Areas like Hickory are now approaching 25 percent with the escarpment region nearing a 40-percent probability.
Summary
Confidence is steadily increasing that a winter storm will impact the region Friday afternoon and lasting to the pre-daybreak hours of Saturday. Accumulating snow is appearing likely with higher amounts closer to the mountains. Freezing rain and sleet will also be a factor for those closer to the South Carolina border.
With increased confidence, we have officially bumped the Winter Storm Index to Level 3…
Our next blog update will be Wednesday late morning or early afternoon…