Good morning and Happy New Year!
2025 is here and it appears that we will begin the new year with a cold pattern across a large chunk of the country. We alluded to this pattern change a couple days ago and now we are beginning to see the first of it within the seven day forecast period.
A storm system moved through the Eastern US yesterday and that is delivering a shot of colder air that will provide for temperatures close to the seasonal norm over the next 36-48 hours. Beyond that timeframe another shortwave will be dropping southeast from western Canada that will deliver the first shot of arctic air in this upcoming pattern.
You can see by Friday the shortwave will be dropping into the Northern Plains with a ridge axis oriented to its west amplifying the flow rather than allowing it to remain zonal (flat).
The end result is going to be a nice discharge of arctic air pushing into the Eastern US. By Saturday morning the biggest temperature anomalies just off the surface will be centered over the Carolinas, Virginia and West Virginia. This is going to make for a blustery and cold weekend locally as temperatures will struggle to reach 40 degrees both Saturday and Sunday with teens, low 20’s at night.
This all leads to another storm system that will impact the Eastern US early next week. By Sunday afternoon the next shortwave is already moving across the Plains with low pressure developing just west of the Mississippi River. If you will notice, the western ridge on shortwave #2 isn’t as strong which prevents this from digging further south. Instead this system shoots straight eastward briefly shifting winds aloft to southwest allowing a slight warmup in atmosphere aloft across the Southeast US.
Moisture will quickly move in late Sunday night and early morning brining the next round of precipitation. However, can all the dry air near the surface east of the Appalachians modify in time to prevent some frozen precip from falling? it’s a very close call at this moment, five days out in the forecast period. Given the time of the year we would not be shocked if some freezing rain or sleet accompanies this second shortwave at the onset early Monday morning. This would be a nuisance-type threat of icing at the worst.
Once shortwave #2 passes late Monday, a reinforcing shot of cold air takes over the Carolinas while the next piece of energy is already on the map across the Four Corners Region. Notice the west coast ridge has reappeared? That (+PNA) along with blocking over Greenland (-NAO) means shortwave #3 is a prime candidate for a winter-type event pretty far south the middle to end of next week. It will all depend on just how quick that shortwave decides to eject from the Southwest US. Stay tuned!
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