As we approach the holiday season, there’s been a lot of chatter about potential winter weather in Western North Carolina. Let’s set the record straight on what we’re actually expecting in the coming days.
Weekend Weather Overview (December 14-15, 2024):
A weak upper-level disturbance will cross the Appalachian Mountains Saturday into Sunday, interacting with cold air pushing south due to high pressure over the northeastern U.S. This setup will create a typical cold air damming event.
• Below 1,500 feet: Temperatures are expected to fall to around 34°F by Sunday morning. This will result in a cold, light rain for most areas below this elevation.
• Above 1,500 feet: Temperatures will likely bottom out around 31°F early Sunday before slowly rising through the day. This could allow for a brief period of freezing rain on elevated surfaces, especially in higher terrain. As the high-pressure system moves away, temperatures will rise, transitioning all precipitation to rain by late morning.
Sunday Temperatures:
• Western Foothills: Struggling to get out of the 30s
• Highway 16 Corridor: Around 40°F
• Areas South of Highway 74: Near 41°F
Looking Ahead to Christmas:
There’s been considerable speculation about a potential winter storm around December 22nd based on one particular weather model run from earlier this week. However, context is key. Out of more than 200 model simulations run that day, only one showed significant snowfall across our area. By the next model update, the scenario had disappeared.
• That one model run briefly showed a weather pattern known as “Greenland Blocking,” which can slow down weather systems and allow cold air to build over the eastern U.S.
Here’s what happened:
• This setup suggested that a piece of upper-level energy from the Great Lakes could dive south and spark a significant coastal low-pressure system around December 21st.
However, models have struggled to resolve this fast-paced weather pattern. The dynamics in that model run were overdone and have since been discounted. Current indications show that the northern jet stream’s energy will move through too quickly, preventing any interaction with moisture from the southern jet stream.
What This Means:
At this time, there’s no strong indication of a winter storm or significant snowfall in Western NC for Christmas. While a shot of cold air could arrive, moisture appears limited, reducing the chance for any winter precipitation.
We’ll continue to monitor the pattern as things can change, but for now, don’t believe the hype circulating on social media. Stay tuned for future updates from trusted sources!
