High Impact Weather Briefing 6: Catastrophic flooding expected along the Blue Ridge, Tropical Storm Winds expected Friday morning

Good Thursday morning to everyone, this blog update is being posted at 11:30 am….

Hurricane Helene continues to intensify in the Gulf of Mexico and is destined to be a major hurricane later today as it makes landfall in the Florida Big Bend Region, here is the 11 am National Hurricane Center advisory, no changes of significance in the update.

A predecessor rain event (PRE) continues across western North Carolina. Over the last 24 hours, excessive rainfall has occurred along the Blue Ridge escarpment where 7-11 inches of rain has fallen across sections of Burke, McDowell, Polk and Rutherford Counties. Rainfall amounts drop off as you head east along I-40 and US 74 but those areas will begin to pile up the rain over the next 24 hours. River flooding and flash flooding is on-going along the Catawba and Broad River Basin.

Timeline of Impacts…

We have updated the timeline of impacts for the nine counties we cover. In general an extreme threat of flooding is expected right along the Blue Ridge that could result in catastrophic flooding in some locations through Friday.

Here are the six main takeaways from this weather event and how it will impact our region…

Burke, Caldwell, McDowell, Polk, Rutherford Timeline…

Here’s a chronological look as to the impacts from roughly US 321 and west…these locations stand the best change of an extreme flood risk on Friday and the strongest wind gusts…

Alexander, Catawba, Cleveland, Lincoln Timeline

For areas further east the flood and wind threat remains high through Friday, the worst is yet to come for your area. Not only will flash flooding occur but river flooding will also increase as you deal with the torrential rainfall upstream and for those along the Catawba, water releases by Duke Energy on local lakes will also influence river levels significantly.

Latest Wind Forecast…

As Helene moves inland tonight, winds will begin to increase across western North Carolina and will peak during the morning hours of Friday. Latest guidance is showing that 60 mph wind gusts are possible, especially closer to the Blue Ridge, but all locations are in play. Given the saturated grounds, downed trees and power lines are probable. It will take a good part of the afternoon Friday before winds die down below dangerous speeds.

All the factors involved lead to a high confidence that a severe impact event will occur for a least some areas in the Foothills and Western Piedmont.