High Impact Weather Briefing #2: Tropical Storm Helene is Born. Impacts to Western NC Could be Significant. Our New Timeline Introduced

High Impact Weather Briefing for Tropical Storm Helene

Overview: Tropical Storm Helene is set to impact the North Carolina Foothills from Thursday evening through Saturday morning, bringing significant weather hazards. Helene is expected to intensify as it approaches the Gulf Coast, potentially reaching major hurricane strength before landfall. The primary concerns for our region include flash flooding, strong winds, and severe weather, including the risk of tornadoes. Residents need to prepare for deteriorating conditions as the storm approaches.

Key Messages for the foothills:

1. Flash Flooding Risk:
   • Thursday: Heavy rainfall will develop across the area, particularly in the evening. Rainfall will focus along the southern slopes before spreading northward. Flash flood risk will increase significantly, especially where the rainfall is most intense.
   • Friday: Torrential rains will persist, elevating the flash flood risk to extreme levels across the Foothills, especially along eastern and southern slopes. With already saturated soils, flooding could be widespread, and water levels may rise rapidly in creeks and rivers.
   • Saturday: As Helene moves north, scattered heavy showers may continue due to lingering upper-level disturbances. With the ground already saturated, additional localized flash flooding could occur.
2. Forecast Rainfall:
   • Heavy rainfall totals of 5-7 inches are expected, with areas near the Blue Ridge seeing 7-10 inches. Isolated areas, particularly on the higher slopes, could receive more than 12 inches. This significant rainfall will likely lead to flash flooding from Thursday evening through Friday night.
3. Wind Threat:
   • Forecast models indicate sustained wind gusts of 25-35 mph across the region, with localized gusts up to 40 mph in higher elevations. These winds will be strong enough to down trees and power lines, causing power outages and making travel hazardous. Wind strength forecasts are expected to increase, and there could be widespread impacts to trees and powerlines
4. Severe Weather Potential:
   • There is a medium risk of severe weather, including tornadoes, particularly late Thursday night into early Friday morning. Tornadoes are most likely to develop quickly and with minimal warning during these overnight hours, posing a heightened danger to residents. Please have multiple ways to receive warnings
5. Flood Watches and Warnings:
   • A Flood Watch means conditions are favorable for flooding; be prepared and stay tuned to weather updates. A Flood Warning means flooding is happening or imminent—move to higher ground immediately and never drive through floodwaters. Remember, only six inches of moving water can knock you down, and one foot of water can sweep your vehicle away.
6. Risk Assessment and Timeline:
   • The highest impacts will occur from Thursday evening through Friday morning, with a significant risk of flash flooding, severe winds, and potential tornadoes. Confidence remains medium for a significant weather event, but all residents are urged to finalize preparations now.

Hazard Timeline:

• Thursday Evening to Friday Morning: The highest risk period for flash flooding, severe winds, and tornadoes. Flash flooding is expected to reach extreme levels overnight, with the highest impacts occurring between midnight and early morning.
• Friday: Flooding remains a major threat, particularly in low-lying and flood-prone areas. Wind and tornado risks will continue but gradually decrease throughout the day.
• Saturday: Scattered showers will maintain a localized flash flood risk, especially in areas where soils are already saturated.

Action Steps:

• Stay Informed: Monitor local news, NOAA Weather Radio, and trusted sources like Foothills Action Network for ongoing updates. Stay aware of changing conditions as the storm progresses.
• Prepare Now: Secure loose outdoor items, charge your electronic devices, and have an emergency kit ready. Make sure to have multiple ways to receive weather alerts, especially if sleeping overnight when severe weather is possible. Gas up generators and prepare for power outages. If you live in a flood prone area, have things packed and ready to move to higher ground should flood waters threaten.
• Safety First: Do not drive into flooded roads or walk through floodwaters. “Turn Around, Don’t Drown” is a critical safety reminder—driving into floodwaters puts not only your life but also the lives of rescuers at risk.

Community Preparedness: Foothills Action Network is committed to keeping our community safe as a Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. We urge everyone to take this storm seriously and make the necessary preparations to protect themselves and their families.

For the latest updates, visit foothillsweather.net, hurricanes.gov, weather.gov and continue to stay weather-aware during this impactful event.