Coastal Low Development to occur next 24 hours, some question remains on track

Good Saturday evening,

We hope your weekend is off to a great start. All eyes shift to the coastline as low pressure is in the process of develop off the NC and SC coastline. Visible satellite loop today shows a blossoming of convection where low pressure is trying to form.

The evolution of this feature is from a non-tropical feature with a small window of chance for this to become tropical. A hybrid-type storm is the most likely outcome. The National Hurricane Center continues to highlight the region for 50-percent chance of development.

All expectations is for this storm to be fairly weak when it comes to winds, that part seems clear. The biggest question lies with the ultimate track as there are a couple different solutions being shown in the guidance.

Why? It all comes down to the mid level energy involved in the genesis of the storm. As you can see on the image, we currently have a west-to-east- vorticity max at around 5000 ft but the expectation is for the energy to come together in a more traditional low pressure pattern. The biggest question is where exactly in that genesis point?

Once that genesis point is determined the track is straight-forward in a northwest heading toward the Coastal Carolinas by Tuesday. All the models have shown various solutions from run-to-run on this. Southeastern North Carolina looks to be a good center point for rain impacts from this storm but folks in the Grand Strand Region of South Carolinas needs to monitor this as well, a more western genesis point would help shift the impact area.

Below is a precipitation map through Wednesday morning using a blend of models. Whatever happens, rain will eventually move inland so it will have to be monitored as to how far west the rain gets on Tuesday.

If you have plans to visit the coast this upcoming week, the rain should be out at some point late Monday or Tuesday.