Good Tuesday afternoon,
We continue to monitor the leftovers of Debby as it is located hear Hilton Head Island, S.C. as of late Tuesday afternoon, the storm continues to remain stuck in weak steering currents. Some mid level dry air has also helped spread out the bands of heaviest precipitation across Coastal South Carolina and North Carolina.
Our forecast confidence for Western North Carolina continues to grow for Thursday as our region could see rainfall associated with Debby. On Wednesday, Debby will continue to slowly move east into the Atlantic Ocean. Some re-intensification is possible but given the nature of the storm and how it has spread out, intensification should be limited in nature. By Wednesday night, steering currents should begin to push Debby back toward the South Carolina coast for a second and final landfall not far from Georgetown S.C. and moving northwest into the Pee Dee Region, just west of Florence by Thursday afternoon and to a location near Wadesboro North Carolina Thursday night.
Due to the steering flow moving Debby toward the northwest, the precipitation field associated with the storm will ultimately become shifted to the west and northwest of the low track and that will help push moisture back into the Western Piedmont and some foothill locations.
As the storm moves northwest, the flood risk will shift in the same direction. Latest WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook now includes Charlotte Metro in a moderate risk and US 321 in the slight risk.
Foothills/Western Piedmont Impacts:
Wednesday: Mostly Cloudy, breezy conditions (NE 10-15 MPH) with an isolated shower chance (all areas)
Thursday: Rain bands moving from east-to-west, heaviest in Catawba and Lincoln County, lighter showers along the Blue Ridge. Amounts range from below 1 inch in Polk County to 2-3 inches in sections of Eastern Catawba/Lincoln. Breezy conditions, could reach 20-25 mph in gusts.
Friday: As Debby moves up into Triad Region of North Carolina, northwest surface winds will scour moisture out of the region.
NOTE: No flood watches have been issued at this time but that could change if guidance shows a further west solution.
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