Overview
The weather pattern this week remains dynamic, with an above-average likelihood of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. While severe weather risks are not exceptionally high, they are not zero. The risk for severe weather will be the greatest this afternoon and Wednesday. Midweek will bring exceptionally hot and humid conditions, which will persist until a weak cold front arrives over the weekend.
Definitions:
MCS: Mesoscale Convective System – AKA – A complex of organized thunderstorms that can often produce severe weather over a widespread area in the form of damaging straight line winds.
Ridge Axis: An elongated area of high pressure extending out from a high pressure center. Ridge’s of high pressure create sinking motion in the atmosphere limit rain chances because the air cannot rise.
Diurnal convection: This refers to the process by which the Earth’s surface heats up during the day, leading to the rising of warm air and the subsequent development of clouds and thunderstorms, typically in the afternoon and evening. This phenomenon is driven by the daily cycle of solar heating and cooling.
Height Falls: This phenomenon is associated with the approach of a trough or low-pressure system and often indicates the likelihood of deteriorating weather conditions, such as increased cloudiness, precipitation, and sometimes storms.
Shortwave: refers to a disturbance or trough in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere, typically associated with areas of lower pressure, that moves relatively quickly and induces changes in the weather. Shortwaves are important features in weather forecasting as they often trigger precipitation and storms.