Upper level dynamics to increase heavy rain/flash flood potential starting Wednesday

Good Monday evening,

We hope your week is off to a good start. The weather pattern across the Carolinas remains stuck in place as a series of troughs at various levels of the atmosphere are moving through the middle of the country with the Bermuda High just off the East Coast of the US.

Thunderstorm activity has not been nearly as widespread compared to over the weekend due to a brief shift in the flow over to the west-southwest. However, brief is a key word as the upper level energy to our west will help enhance the flow again for mid week.

Over the past five days, we have been in a deep southwest flow aloft with occasional low level southerly flow to help provide some focus of precipitation…but starting Wednesday a weakening trough will start to get into the pattern allowing a more organized nature of any showers and storms that may fire up. A shortwave at about 5,000 ft will be passing through the mid-south on Wednesday and Thursday, that will shift the winds again back to south-southwest providing an upslope enhancement.

Additional upper level energy at 10,000 ft will slide down into the Southeast US for the mid week giving additional modes to focus and organize precipitation as it moves northeast. Shortwaves originating from the Gulf Coast will ride northeast toward the Southern Appalachians.

And moisture isn’t going anywhere as there are no northwest winds to be found…

With the potential of more organized storm activity on top of the current saturation of the ground, we may see a heightened flash flood risk by Thursday. The Weather Prediction Center is already highlighting the Carolinas this far in advance.

The Bottom Line…

1. Showers and thunderstorms will continue daily as a trough remains to our west.
2. Upper level energy will allowing better organization of storms Wednesday and Thursday.
3. Flash flooding is possible with any heavy cells, best chance will occur starting Wednesday.