A cold front has moved through the area today. Gusty winds from this afternoon will wane overnight. Another cold front will move through the area Sunday Morning, bringing gusty winds back to the region Sunday Afternoon. Low End precipitation chances return Monday Afternoon through Tuesday with a cold front that develops across Tennessee and Kentucky. Uncertainty exists as to the amount of moisture that will make it East of the mountains. Temperatures remain below normal behind the front, will moderate some Thursday, before another colder shot of Arctic air arrives next weekend.
As mentioned a cold front will swing through the region Sunday Morning. This will be a dry frontal passage though with no precipitation. It will increase winds Sunday Afternoon and a few gusts to 25mph look possible. I don’t see this wind event being enough to cause a lot of power outage problems. One or two cant be totally ruled out though as the ground remains completely saturated.
Winds will die down Sunday Night and that will set the stage for optimal radiational cooling. By the time we wake up Monday Morning temps will be in the mid 20’s across most of the foothills.
Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. Day will start out mostly clear but high cirrus will start to spill into the area during the morning. A weak piece of energy will cross the Tennessee Cumberland Plateau as a cold front develops across that area. Precipitation will break out across Tennessee and Kentucky in the form of snow Monday Morning. While this front has upper level support it is lacking moisture. The mountains should get in on the precipitation by midday Monday. The best moisture will likely be across southwestern North Carolina. Here, across the foothills, moisture appears to be limited. Couple that with downsloping winds that compress and dry the air out on the east side of the Mountains, and this doesn’t add up to an event that will be memorable. That being said, I do thing some snow showers could break containment of the Blue Ridge and move out across the foothills Monday Night into Tuesday.
Monday Night the front looks like it will begin to sag into the foothills. This will enhance snow prdu tion across the mountains. Look for scattered snow showers becoming possible after 8pm Monday Night. With limited moisture to work with (less than .05 currently modeled) any accumulation looks very light. Temperatures will fall into the upper 20’s. Some snow showers could even reach down to the South Carolina Boarder counties.
Models do differ though. Some models develop a surface low along the front along the coast wich throws moisture back into the area for Tuesday. Other models keep it dry and move any moisture out of the area. So there is a very low confidence regarding Tuesday’s forecast. Right now, do not anticipate a big winter weather event. Snow lovers, this isn’t the storm that produces big time totals across the foothills. The forecast team and I will keep an eye on this going through the day Sunday and adjust as necessary. Any precipitation will pull out of the area Tuesday Afternoon and temps Tuesday Night will bottom out in the low to mid 10’s. I will allow for a 30% chance of snow or a snow rain mix for Monday Afternoon through Tuesday. Confidence in any snowfall is low and it is too soon to know if accumulations will present themselves.
Arctic air spills into the area from the northwest behind the departing front. Highs Wednesday will likely only make the mid 30’s under mostly sunny conditions. Wednesday Night temps will be fridged again, bottoming out in the mid 10’s.
Another cold front will approach the area Friday. Ahead of it though temps will warm to the low and mid 40’s for Thursday under mostly clear skies.
The next weather system will move into the area Friday, bringing the next chance at snow across the area. This system is very uncertain at this point and it is totally possible it gets surprssed to our south. If it is surpressed, skies will be partly cloudy Friday but dry. With a full latitude trough in place over the East coast, the potential is there for a southern stream system to develop over the East coast and move northeast. We will see.
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