An upper-level low-pressure center will move into the region on Friday. Snow showers will develop across the mountains, but this moisture-starved system likely will not have enough moisture to produce anything other than blowing snow across the foothills Friday Night. Cold high pressure builds into the region briefly late Saturday and Sunday. Another energy shot will pass to the south on New Year’s Day. Dry high pressure will build back into the region for the midweek period before another spoke of energy moves by to the south late week.
We were able to dry out some more today across the area following an extensive storm system that impacted our area earlier in the week. It was nice to see the sun again. Expect clouds to increase overnight, especially across the mountains. Downsloping winds off the Blue Ridge should keep stratocumulus from developing across the foothills. The cut-off upper low pressure will move into the Tennessee Valley Friday and approach our area Friday Night into Saturday Morning. Unfortunately, this system doesn’t have good moisture, so seeing snow showers break out of the mountains Friday Night would be extremely difficult. I wouldn’t be surprised if there were some blowing snow flurries, though. High temps Friday Winds will pick up and gust briefly to 20mph Friday Night and only muster the upper 40s with a few more clouds mixing with the sun.
Friday Night looks like the best energy from the upper level low will open up and fall apart over the Blue Ridge. Initially, models indicated a surface low may develop just inland and move northeast, offering a brief shot of moisture into the region. That will not be the case, however. Winds will be northwesterly at 10-15mph as lows fall into the upper 20’s.
Saturday should be breezy as the upper low continues to wash out over the eastern seaboard. Snow showers will continue in the favored northwestern slopes but end by early afternoon. Again, high temps should reach the upper 40s, and winds should relax by nightfall.
Saturday Night, dry high pressure will build into the area. With optimal radiational cooling, look to wake up Sunday morning to temps in the mid-20s across much of the area.
High pressure will move off the coast quickly on Sunday in response to a very progressive weather pattern. Another short-wave low-pressure system will slide by to the south on New Year’s Day. Considerable model disagreement continues regarding how much moisture will make it North into the western Carolinas. We will only highlight a 20% chance of precipitation. Initially, Atmospheric profiles likely would support a rain/snow mix across the I-40 corridor if moisture can make it that far north. Any precipitation would quickly change to liquid, though, with no impacts—South of there, all rain showers. I am currently thinking there won’t be much of anything. We will watch it, though. We will also go a bit higher with temps Monday in response to more sunshine and a more southerly flow. Expect highs in the mid-50s.
There is a lot of chatter on social media about a significant cold snap coming to some of the area. That model projection was in response to a sudden stratospheric warming phenomenon that was modeled to begin next week. In turn, the models indicated a record cold snap in the East. That model thinking was way out in the future, though, and it is particularly irresponsible to share on some excited weather folk’s social media as “what could be coming.” Over the last two days, what they won’t show you is that the model predicting that is now predicting neutral temperatures or maybe even slightly above average temps for the late month. I say all of that to say this: please be cautious about sharing Armageddon-type weather posts, such as those indicating temperatures well below average. For snow lovers, you do not want that polar outbreak anyway. You want average temperatures with an active Southern jet. Those polar air masses are dry 90% of the time.
The pattern after midweek next week looks more favorable for snow across the western Carolinas. It appears that an active Southern jet stream will continue while the North Atlantic Oscillation allows for some colder air to dump into the East from Canada. It’s not the polar vortex type cold, but hopefully just cold enough that we can all get in on seeing some snow fall from the sky this year.