Good morning, and Happy Festivus to you! Can you believe Christmas Day is just two days away? This year has flown by so quickly. High pressure will continue to dominate the weather for the rest of the weekend, and temperatures will remain above average through Sunday. While Santa may not need Rudolph’s help locally on Christmas Eve, he may need him in other parts of the world where large storm systems are expected to hit. So, it’s safe to predict that a reindeer with a red nose will be leading the sleigh. One of these weather systems will arrive in our area on Christmas Day, bringing widespread rainfall to the region. Brace yourself for a pattern change later next week after the system passes. Colder weather will move into the eastern and southeastern United States by mid to late week.
This afternoon, an area of cumulus clouds has developed over Northeast Georgia and the Upstate of South Carolina. These clouds won’t bring any rain but could filter the sunshine as they move northeast up the I-85 corridor. Expect broken high clouds this afternoon, resulting in filtered sunshine at any point. However, the sun will eventually win out, and there won’t be any rain. Winds from the south and southwest will develop this afternoon as our current high-pressure ridge remains to the northeast. Expect highs today to reach about 60 degrees Fahrenheit along I-40 and the low 60s along Highway 74.
The high-pressure ridge is expected to stay locked to the northeast of our region tonight. At the upper levels, another ridge of high pressure will build up, increasing moisture in the area. Consequently, we can expect to see a few more clouds in the sky on Sunday morning. The low temperature will remain above freezing in most regions outside the mountains, warmer than usual for this time of year.
On Christmas Eve, there will be high clouds throughout the area, and Sunday will also be quiet with no significant weather events. The high-pressure system in the northeast will gradually move out to sea, and an upper low-pressure system and trough will move across the central Plains. As the low-pressure system moves northward, models suggest it gets cut off from the normal flow. An area of increased vorticity will originate from the southwest and wrap around the upper low-pressure system. As the vorticity wraps around the upper low pressure, forcing and lift will move northeast, generating a large precipitation shield that will expand into Western North Carolina. Early Christmas morning, moisture will expand and develop across the area, thanks to a low-level jet pumping moisture in from the Atlantic. Moisture will then be transported across the Blue Ridge Escarpment. The eastern slopes and the far western foothills will experience the highest rainfall from Monday to Tuesday Night.
With this system, there is no threat of precipitation other than rain, as temperatures remain well above freezing for the entire area. Look for 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain along the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge and far western foothills. Elsewhere across the foothills, 1 – 2 inches of rain looks to be a sure bet.
ABOVE: Forecast total precipitation for next 7 days
The rainfall is predicted to move away from our region by Tuesday night as the upper low over the Midwest weakens and disintegrates. A cold front will pass through our area on Wednesday, removing any remaining moisture. The frontal passage will bring windy conditions due to a tight pressure gradient behind it.
This cold front will change the pattern across the southeastern United States. A return to cooler-than-normal temperatures is likely. While it is too far to look for any winter weather, at least we will have the cold air in place.
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Please include the western most part of North Carolina in your weather forecast. We are often a forgotten part of the other portion of North Carolina.
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