Good Sunday Afternoon. Very hot temperatures ahead for Monday. Strong storms will be likely in the early afternoon hours of Monday. A cold front will move into the area Monday Night and Tuesday, with one more round of thunderstorms Tuesday Afternoon. Behind the front much cooler and stable air moves into the area leading to a drier mid and late week.
As of 7:00pm Sunday Night a MCS is noted moving across Central Tennessee this evening. Currently, I believe these will weaken as we lose daylight and they approach the mountains. The mountains and adjacent foothills could see a brief passing shower around midnight but thunder isn’t anticipated. We will monitor this though. The clouds will limit the viewing of the perseid meteor shower tonight.
Going into Monday we should start off partly cloudy and not as much fog as the last several mornings, limited to mountain valleys. A thunderstorm complex appears to approach the area early Monday Afternoon. A few of these thunderstorms could be strong to severe. Accordingly, the SPC has placed our area in a marginal risk for severe weather Monday, with a slight risk for the mountains. Looking at the latest model guidance, it looks like the SPC will be extending the day 2 outlook down to the I-40 Corridor. Wind shear across the area looks to increase as winds ahead of the approaching front veer and increase from the southwest. As storms move off the blue ridge this could allow for some organization of thunderstorm clusters, leading to a damaging wind risk. As the storms move into the southern and eastern foothills we should see them weaken as they move into a more stable environment. This will be conditional though so check back Monday Morning for updates. Monday Night into Tuesday will be rather wet across the mountains and rounds of rainfall could impact the western foothills through the night as well.
Tuesday the cold front will move into and through the area bringing one last chance for scattered thunderstorms. Due to more cloud cover and morning showers Tuesday, I don’t think there will be a risk of severe weather.
Once the front moves through cooler and drier air will move into the region. Forecast highs Wednesday and Thursday are a few degrees below average for this time of year (87° current average).
Temperatures will heat back up going into next weekend and I removed rain chances as well. We will monitor Friday and Saturday because I may have to add a 20% chance there for afternoon mountain pop ups.