Lead Forecaster Daniel Crawley
This past week has been rough if you are one who relies on nice weather for your job, to spend free time outdoors or even for your mental health…it’s been a long stretch of cloudy, wet, cool conditions.
The good news today is that we are going to finally see a temporary change that should bring more sunshine to the Western Carolinas.
Water Vapor image below clearly shows an active pattern developing across the United States thanks to the -NAO forcing the mean storm track south. One shortwave is moving through the Midwest, a second feature is in Texas and a third is moving onto the West Coast of the US.
The shortwave across the Midwest will move east-southeast over the next 24 hours and will be the key feature to end this prolonged moist pattern. The short range moisture loop below highlights the shortwave that begins to force moisture south today and then by Monday, northwest flow takes over pushing dry air into the Southeast.
The big takeaway: Clouds will begin to dissipate Sunday Night and especially on Monday.
Northwest flow will tap into some of the cold air to our north and bring a touch of early winter back to the Western Carolinas. Temperatures for Monday and Tuesday will be in the Upper 40’s/Lower 50’s with Upper 20’s and 30’s at night…
The image below are dewpoints across the Eastern US on Tuesday morning. There is a strong reservoir of cold dry air that will settle east of the Appalachians early in the workweek.
Looking at the 500 mb setup by late Tuesday… the feature currently coming on shore the West Coast will move into the Plains, deep moisture will be on the return for Wednesday and we’re looking at another rain event for Wednesday and Thursday.