Lead Forecaster Daniel Crawley
Good Sunday evening to everyone, lets take a look at the weather setup for the Western Carolinas as we go back to work and school on Monday.
Looking at the water vapor image this evening you can see the Carolinas and all of the southeast are locked in southeast flow at the surface and a weak steering current aloft. Showers and thunderstorms the past couple days have not moved a whole lot due to the steering flow being weak. Across the northern tier of the country there is a trough and upper low moving to the east. That is help going to change things up as southwest flow will increase for the early part of the week.
When looking at the evolution of the flow this week at 500 mb, you can see the increased southwest flow starting on Monday and reach its apex on Tuesday. By Wednesday the trough will begin to settle in over Southeast Canada and that pushes a front through and shifts the flow to northwest for the second half of the week.
The big change coming with this trough is an infusion of less humid air into the Carolinas starting on Wednesday and more coming for Thursday. The air by then will dry out enough to where precipitation chances will be eliminated…mother nature sending another subtle hint that the seasons are changing. The timing seems appropriate considering Thursday Sept 1st is the first day of Meteorological Fall.
The overall result is going to be a 7-Day forecast with temperatures at or above normal for the end of August. Some moisture may try to return to the Western Carolinas by next weekend.
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