Thunderstorms Return on Monday, Severe Weather Possible

Lead Forecaster Daniel Crawley

Good Sunday evening to everyone, hope you’ve had a great weekend. The weather definitely cooperated as we had a lot of sunshine and less humidity compared to what we have seen most of the summer.

Changes are already underway with the next storm system expected to impact the Carolinas tomorrow. Shortwave energy across the Midwest is diving south with a surface/850mb low pressure developing on it diving toward the southeast as well.

By tomorrow morning the area of low pressure will be located to our north west and will be rotating toward Western North Carolina. Winds at the lower levels will be coming out of the southwest providing increased moisture content. Meanwhile a jet streak will be coming across the Tennessee Valley tomorrow morning and will push east toward Western North Carolina by afternoon.

Forecasted 850 mb winds (8 am Mon)

All of the ingredients are coming together for the potential of thunderstorms on Monday, a few of them could be severe with damaging winds and large hail. These may be a bit more organized compared to the pulse-type severe that we have seen recently, so be aware of that if you have outdoor plans.

Storm Prediction Center has outlooked the region for a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) tomorrow.

SPC Day 2 Outlook

Some light rain showers may impact some of us tomorrow morning but the expectation is for sunshine and increasing humidity to make us unstable. By early afternoon convection will fire along the ridge tops and moving east and southeast.

Current short range guidance really makes things active by 2 pm and that could last through sunset (from west to east).

18z HRRR future radar

Be Weather Aware tomorrow! Right now would be a great time to download the Foothills Weather App…click on one of the buttons below to download!

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