Lead Forecaster Daniel Crawley
We talked in detail on Friday about the short term portion of the forecast period as there is an expectation for a slow increase in shower and thunderstorm activity. Once we get past that and go into next week things look to be coming together once again for a Heat Wave spreading across the entire Southern third of the Continuous United States. This will start at the second half of the current 7-Day forecast cycle and could persist through the Day 10 range which could be putting us in the final days of July.
Looking at the 500 mb setup, you can see on Monday how we still have a weakness in the heights across the Eastern US while the Central/Southern Plains bakes in heat and the Bermuda High tries to nose-in from the east.
Once we get to the mid-week timeframe the pattern shifts again, the heat ridge briefly centers itself across the Four Corners Region of the US while a trough slides through the Upper Midwest and toward New England. That trough could very well slide the early week storms out and drop less humid air into North Carolina for the middle of next week.
Once we get to the end of next workweek, the trough passing through New England slides through and heights across the nation really fill back in. That leads to a broad Southern US ridge by next Friday/Saturday. It looks to be centered near or west of the Mississippi River but it will definitely influence the weather pattern here in the Carolinas. Triple digit heat (actual temp readings of 110) will be possible West of the Mississippi where its been dry and hot already.
Once we get to next week we should begin to know more details as to the extent of heat and humidity impacts we will have locally. Also, could the heights set up just right for an MCS path to emerge?
Numerical guidance from the ensembles are matching up fairly well at this juncture in the game for next week. We are seeing a probable return of mid to upper 90’s heat for the Carolinas.
Here are some heat safety tips for you, your friends/family (outside), the elderly stuck at home and for your pets!