Widespread Rainfall Expected on Monday

Lead Forecaster Daniel Crawley

Things are lining up to where Monday could be the most widespread rainfall event we have seen in quite a while. Here’s a breakdown of what’s going on.

Water vapor image tonight shows abundant gulf moisture moving Northward into the Southeast ahead of a slowing cold front. This front will take at least another 36 to 48 hours to get to our east.

Water Vapor Image (11:40 pm 5/22/22)

A nontropical area of low pressure is coming onshore the Central Gulf coast tonight and move to the north east as we head through Monday. The best spin with this feature is at the 850 mb level, or around 5000 feet altitude.

HRRR 850mb winds

As you can see on the model guidance the potential is there for some upslope flow into western North Carolina. The combination of this low pressure, abundant moisture and a surface front will lead to widespread showers and occasional heavy rainfall on Monday for the mountains, foothills and Western Piedmont

Weather Prediction Center has introduced a slight risk of excessive rainfall tomorrow along the immediate Blue Ridge.

Rainfall amounts could pile up tomorrow in our region. Given how some has already seen heavy rainfall, you can see the need for that slight risk to be issued.

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