Chances of Precipitation on the Rise Through Next Week

Lead Forecaster Daniel Crawley

Good Saturday afternoon, hope your weekend is off to a good start. Storm chances are on the increase today and they could persist for several days due to a couple different weather systems.

A trough across the northern tier of the US is pushing a frontal boundary toward the Eastern part of the US. It will be influencing our weather locally starting on Sunday.

Surface forecast map (2 pm Sunday)

Scattered to numerous storms are expected for tomorrow and lingering into Monday. A surface high will slide across the Midwest and into the northeast. The frontal boundary will begin to take on a damming configuration on Monday due to the surface flow coming from the northeast.

Surface forecast map (2 pm Monday)

The best chances of rain in the short term looks to be from late Sunday afternoon through parts of Monday.

Once we get to about Tuesday, a bit more stable air will be in place limiting convective activity. However the respite will not last very long as the next feature evolves in the middle of the country. A long wave trough will form and may briefly cutoff along its base on Wednesday. The combination of the trough and a 500mb ridge off the Southeast coast will tap additional gulf moisture and transport it toward the Western Carolinas.

500 mb height anomalies (Wednesday 2 pm)

This feature will slowly lift northeast and this will bring another active 24-48 hour span from late Wednesday onward. Given the dynamics involved a severe weather threat is possible and locally heavy rainfall more probable.

Overall the region stands a chance to make up on a recent dry spell. Between now and next Friday some locations have a chance at receiving 2-4 inches of precipitation.

WPC Precipitation forecast through Friday

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