A Look Ahead: Severe Weather Expected This Week in the Southeast.

Lead Forecaster Daniel Crawley

Good Sunday afternoon to everyone, hope you’re having a great weekend wherever you may be. We are keeping an eye on the weather for this upcoming week as a lot of different things will be happening.

Looking at the water vapor image this afternoon you can see a whole lot of dry air across the southeast US, a potent upper trough exiting California will move across the Four Corners States tomorrow and then approach the Southern Plains by Tuesday. This will eventually close off into a strong upper low over Texas.

The Storm Prediction Center is expecting a pretty significant severe weather episode with this strong upper feature. The current Day 2 outlook shows a severe weather threat for Texas and then on day three which is Tuesday, a Moderate Risk (Level 4 of 5) for the lower Mississippi river valley with Louisiana and Lower Mississippi being the biggest target at this time.

SPC Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook
SPC Day 3 Severe Weather Outlook

For our friends in Mississippi and Louisiana that day three moderate risk could yield a tornado outbreak. That of course we will know more as we get closer. Click on the loop below to see how the short range guidance is indicating the evolution of the severe weather through Tuesday night.

NAM 3km radar simulation through Tuesday 8 pm

The upper low will continue to translate to the east and Northeast Tuesday night and by Wednesday early the leftovers of the precipitation back across the mid south will enter into the southern Appalachian region and the western Carolinas. At this time we do not expect a severe weather threat for the Western Carolinas but we will monitor that in case of any changes. Regardless we should get some rainfall on Wednesday.

Late Week Cooldown Appears Likely

Once the storm system passes through some subtle changes will occur that will impact our weather as we head into next weekend. If you click on the loop below you will see how the early week storm system will eventually phase with northern stream energy to develop a significant trough across the eastern US for the end of next week.

500 mb height anomalies through Sat March 26th

The phasing of the two streams will allow some cold air to dump into the Eastern US by next weekend and that will likely bring the temperature down from what we have been seeing lately and White we will see early this upcoming week. We may be dealing with a frost threat at some point next weekend across the region which is perfectly normal for late March.

Euro ENS mean 850 mb temp anomalies Day 8

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