Lead Forecaster Daniel Crawley
Good Wednesday afternoon to everyone, we continue to monitor for the potential of some winter weather on Friday across Western North Carolina.
The threat of winter weather had been on our radar over the past couple days. Some important changes has occurred in the last 24 hours that suggests the impact from any winter weather on Friday should be relatively low, especially compared to the winter storm that slammed the region last Sunday.
The key changes in the forecast since yesterday comes at the jet stream level. There was a split in the computer model guidance yesterday between a significant winter storm (European, NAM models) and a more novelty type event (GFS) with low end amounts. If you look at the video below, the upper level energy needed to produce a significant winter weather event on Friday looks to be on the decrease. Overnight the bullish NAM model trended more toward the GFS.
With this development, our forecast confidence is increasing that this won’t be a high impact event. Below is a first call map for the event which is expected to begin on Friday afternoon and lingering into Friday night. I would focus on the lower end totals at this time across our region. With the focus of moisture being along the arctic front, this could be one of those rare occasions where locations east of our area get more winter precip compared to the usual climatological favored locations (Mountains, Northern Foothills)
One thing I will note, temperatures with this should be several degrees below freezing on Friday Night. Even light amounts of snowfall could post some travel hazards, Be mindful of that if you have Friday late day and evening plans. Some of the worst travel bottle necks come during these light winter weather events as some perceive no danger.
Summary
Some winter weather may occur across the Foothills and Western Piedmont on Friday but amounts looks to be generally light…
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