Cold and Potentially Active Winter Pattern to Continue Across Western North Carolina

Photo Courtesy: Matt Huggins

Lead Forecaster Daniel Crawley

Good Monday afternoon to everyone, on this Martin Luther King Day we look ahead to the weather pattern ahead for this week. First off we are dealing with the aftermath of the winter storm that hit the region on Sunday. Snow melt is slowly occurring today and will be more prevalent as we get into Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.

Most primary roads are in good shape as of this afternoon while the secondary roads are still snow and sleet covered for many. We will have to deal with refreeze both tonight (Low’s Teens) and on Tuesday night).

As we get to mid week a low pressure across the Midwest will drag a cold front in here late on Wednesday bringing a chance of rain showers Wednesday night and the early morning hours of Thursday. This will fall in liquid form here in the lower elevations, no threat of wintry weather expected…

Surface Map Tue AM – Thurs PM

Weekend Winter Weather Threat?

As you can see on the video above, the frontal passage on Thursday will usher a new batch of arctic air into the Carolinas for the upcoming weekend. Temperatures will be several degrees below the norms for late January. The cold front will along the Gulf Coast and Southeast US Coastline and looks to be the breeding ground for additional areas of low pressure.

This setup is highly suggestive of additional winter weather opportunities this weekend. The details will need to be ironed out over the next couple days. Thankfully by Wednesday the short range model guidance will come into range of this potential event.

The global model guidance is showing winter weather potential in its ensembles…

Morganton/Lenoir Afternoon Ensemble Data

GFS Ensembles:

European Ensembles:

Shelby Area Afternoon Ensemble Data

GFS Ensembles:

European Ensembles

Regardless of how much winter weather we might see this upcoming weekend, its the cold air that is pretty much a certainty at this point. The +PNA/-NAO looks to be locked in for at least the next 10 days.

Check in daily as we will do blog updates. Also visit our forecast page and make sure to download the Foothills Weather App for Android and Apple Devices.

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