Good New Year’s Eve Morning! Can you believe it is already the end of 2021. I hope the New Year will find you doing well and blessing all of you and your families!
Onward with the good stuff. Today high pressure moves down over the Caribbean. Southerly flow will increase through the day. The big playmaker is the upper low that is digging south and will come ashore through the day in Northern Mexico. Locally in our forecast area the severe risk for this afternoon and evening is all but zero. There will likely be a few thunderstorms during the night tonight, especially north of I-40 where there may be slightly more instability. With a strong inversion in place today and tonight any thunder will be quite loud. So look out for the pitter pat of the kiddos footsteps running to jump in bed with you.
A cold front will approach the area Saturday bringing with it a line of showers and thunderstorms. Ahead of it, showers will continue to stream north from the Gulf Saturday Morning. By daybreak though these showers should have moved North of our area allowing for another morning with very dense fog. Give yourself extra travel time. Saturday will start out mild, just as the last several mornings have. Temperatures should top out around 70° with winds increasing through the afternoon. We have a perplex forecast in the mid term and it all has to do with timing and strength of the line of storms that is to affect our area. Models, from run to run, change 6-12 hours one way or another. We will go with a middle of the road approach with a frontal passage and thunderstorms arriving sometime between 2 and 5am Sunday Morning. With that timing in mind, the severe risk should be limited. We will monitor it though.
From there the forecast becomes even more merky. I mean this is some murky territory so we encourage you to keep checking back for this part of the forecast. High bust potential. Global models develop a separate low pressure on the tail end of the front back across the Carolina’s. Mesoscale models have trended away from this scenario today. The global model scenario would allow for moisture to wrap back into the area Sunday Afternoon and keep the area pretty wet. The mesoscale scenario would allow for partial clearing late Sunday. Both scenario’s accumulate some degree of snow in the Blue Ridge Sunday Night into Monday Morning. The global model scenario would produce more snow accumulation in the high country and could even allow for the very end of the event to change to a snow/rain mix in the lower elevations before ending. No accumulation outside of the mountains, if any snow falls at all. It is very rare for anyone outside of the mountains to receive snow of any amount when cold air is chasing the precipitation. So do not get your hopes up.
- Thunderstorms tonight should not be severe but thunder will be very loud due to the inversion in place.
- Rain and thunderstorms end before daybreak Saturday.
- Very dense fog expected Saturday Morning
- Showers on and off through the day Saturday
- Winds increase Saturday Afternoon ahead of cold front. Could gust to 40mph.
- Cold front arrive early (predawn) Sunday Morning. Severe risk appears low at this time.
- Late Sunday Morning into the afternoon remains unclear as of now. More rain is possible
- Temps plummet Sunday Afternoon from the low 60’s into the upper 30’s and lower 40’s.
- The mountains receive snow from the system Sunday Night into Monday. If the global model scenario is realized then more snow will fall across the high country. Mesoscale senario accumulates lower amounts.
- Foothills and NW Piedmont could see a brief change over to a snow rain mix just before precipitation ends Sunday if the global model scenario pans out. No accumulation.