Good Tuesday Afternoon. Here is a short update on what we are expecting overnight, going into Thursday. Keep in mind that another severe weather episode is forecast for Thursday Afternoon. This timeline covers only the first portion, Wednesday Night through Predawn Thursday.
The severe weather that we are expecting overnight tonight has come into a better view. Look for showers to start to redevelop after sunset tonight. The frontal system and shortwave that we are monitoring for tonight’s potential severe weather is already developing in Northern Alabama and Mississippi. It extends Northward into Western Tennessee as well, but the heart of the severe weather right now is in Arkansas and Mississippi. Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Watches and Warnings are already up in those areas.
No change to Daniel’s earlier update today and the forecast locally looks on track. Our atmosphere remains capped with not much buoyancy available yet as the front is still well West of us. This will help us out a little as the short wave tracks west of the mountains, along the cold front to the North tonight. There should be enough lift though that the cap should erode around midnight allowing for rain and thunderstorms to move in. With the thunderstorm complex arriving in the middle of the night, CAPE will not be as readily available. Aloft there will be plenty of shear to support rotating updrafts, but the question is will there be enough CAPE and buoyancy around to lift air parcels up into that more unstable layer? So the severe risk is low to medium across the area still. One potential issue though is one of these long track supercells. These are developing back across the aformentioned area as we speak. Does one of those supercells survive the trek into our area? It seems possible and if so, the complex could provide just enough of it’s own dynamics to overcome the weak cap. So the slight risk for severe thunderstorms tonight remain possible.
Here is a timeline of what and when to expect….